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Oil crunch report launched

It is important to stress that the world is not running out of oil. Peak Oil occurs when the flows of oil can no longer be expanded. Crucially this will occur whilst oil is still being discovered and developed. It will occur because the loss of capacity due to depletion exceeds the volumes of new flows entering the system.

The problem is that the remaining oil is in extreme environments, is technically challenging to develop or is difficult to refine. These more technically challenging resources are difficult to mobilise at

 

 

anything like the rate that would offset the loss of capacity to depletion and the rate that world demand is increasing. Over the last few years depletion has been running at over three times the rate of demand growth.

These two pressures - depletion and demand - have already combined to produce the price increases we have observed over recent years. Even if demand growth fell to zero between 3.5 and 3.7 million barrels/day of new capacity would have to be developed just to offset depletion losses.

 

Recent declines in the oil price and the onset of recession are widely thought likely to postpone Peak Oil. Counter intuitively, lower oil prices are more likely to hasten Peak Oil because most new developments need an oil price of $70-80 to produce an adequate return on investment, particularly in the face of price instability and induced financial caution. Project delays and cancellations can only erode new capacity additions causing Peak Oil to occur earlier than it otherwise might have.

You can download the report here

Peak Oil Consulting

About us

Peak Oil Consulting is a specialist consultancy focusing on the coming challenges in global energy supply. We help our clients to understand the process and implications of peaking oil supplies, enabling them to anticipate and successfully adapt to these issues.  We provide insight and analysis to senior executives in the private and public sectors.

Our clients include

Accenture
Arup
Citibank
Chesapeake Energy
Clarium Capital
GHK
JCB
Lexus

 

Qantas
Redburn Partners
Sabic
Soil Association
Travel Foundation
Windsor Energy Group
13D

Our services include

• Public Speaking & Executive Briefing
• Consulting
• Bespoke Research & Reporting
• Data Modelling and Forecasting
• Workshop Facilitation
• Policy Advice

The Oil Crunch

Director's biography

Chris Skrebowski is the founding Director of Peak Oil Consulting and the Consulting Editor of Petroleum Review.

Chris has 38 years experience in the oil industry, starting work in 1970 as a long-term planner for BP. His career has been divided between industry planning/market analysis and oil journalism. He was Senior Analyst for the Saudi Oil Ministry in London (1985-1994), Editor of Petroleum Economist (1994-97) and Editor of Petroleum Review (1997-2008).

 

Since 2003 he has been presenting on peak oil to a range of business audiences around the world.

Chris is a Fellow of the Energy Institute, a founding member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and sits on the board of the Oil Depletion and Analysis Centre (ODAC). He speaks and publishes regularly on oil and gas related subjects in the international media.

Click here for Chris' Wikipedia page.
Chris Skrebowski
 
 
 

Peak Oil Consulting Email: info@peakoilconsulting.com • Telephone: +44 (0)20 7871 6996 • Mobile: +44 (0)796 626 2257